United States: The past presidential election cycles greatly reflect the national crises over major international policy issues, which changed the world order and became front-page news and even part of debates, albeit not at the top of American voters’ minds.
However, experts and analysts wonder if that will change with the 2024 race because of one issue: The Israeli-Hamas war stemming from Hamas’ terror attack on October 7 and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza have not only been the primary issues troubling the Democratic voters but have also been repeatedly referred to as a long-standing problem.
Democratic pollsters reported ineffective in many cases and contradictory to the data collected by NGOs, and independent volunteers appearing disappointed as a broader reelections strategy even though they do not know the candidate or any of the issues discussed.
After talking to more than a dozen activists, Democrat officials and voters it became apparent that it was not easy to determine whether the six-month-old Israeli war, was turning away the voters who would standardly side with Biden or if the group of possible non Biden voters was divided between those that would vote back for Biden in November and those that would not vote for Biden regardless.
Wa’el Alzayat, the head of Muslim advocacy organization Emgage, while asking about if Gaza is different in its electoral fallout, said, “Potentially,” as ABC News reported.
He added, “I think this is a rare occurrence in American politics, but we have clearly seen that this policy is unpopular in the Democratic Party.”
Close election fight between Trump and Biden this year
Biden won against Donald Trump in 2020 with just 5 points of difference in national votes – the next election is, however, predicted to be a lot closer, with both sides vying to get enough votes in a handful of states, where slight movements in either direction may determine victory.
Alzayat said, “The president won his ticket by cobbling together a coalition of different groups under the big Democratic tent, as they say, and his policy is at odds with his electoral strategy because it’s fracturing the party,” as ABC News reported.
“And it’s not just Arabs or Muslims. You’re seeing progressives, young voters, Black voters, liberal Jewish voters, or progressive Jewish voters. This is a pretty good segment of the party,” he added.
Biden’s concerns over anti-war anger against him
The left-wing group and the anti-war activists have been livid or upset with the incumbent president for his unrestricted support for the Israeli army campaign against Hamas, which has come with a heavy death toll, particularly in Gaza.
Moreover, Some of Biden’s campaign rallies have been disrupted by protesters and there have also been tens of thousands of Democrats who have been persuaded to signal their displeasure by opting for other ballot choices in some of the most important primary states including Michigan and others.
Biden has, however, acknowledged such concerns and sought to balance his support for the response to Hamas with sympathy for the Palestinians by saying that some of the Israeli operations were seen as excessive.
He also increased the lobbying pressure to let more humanitarian assistance reach Gaza, particularly after seven of the World Central Kitchens employees were killed in an Israeli strike last week.